peak
discharge
is
estimated to
be
about
two_
to three times greater than the
first
peak,
on
the order of 100,000 to 150,000
cfs.
The
flood
wave
passed into the Cowlitz River with probably
little
change
in discharge. Early in the
morning
of
May
19, the
peak
discharge
at
Castle
Rock
was.
probably in excess of 100,000 cfs
and
caused serious but not record
flooding. Several
indirect
measurements
of discharge
have
been
surveyed.
We
are
now
in the process of surveying high-water
marks
and
conducting a
peak
timing study throughout the Toutle River.
Because
of
the uncertainty of the
consistency of the
mudflow
and
irregularities
in observed high-water marks,
it
will
be
some
time before
we
are able to
finalize
our discharge figures.
Most
significant
were
the
tremendous
quantities of sediment deposited in
the Cowlitz
and
Columbia
Rivers.
In
the Cowlitz River, about 25,400 acre-
feet
of sediment
is
clogging the channel
between
the
mouth
of the Toutle
River
and
the
Columbia
River.- This
volume
of sediment
would
cover a square
mile to a depth of nearly
40
feet.
The
new
sediment
is
12
to
15
feet
deep
throughout the channel
and
has
reduced the-channel's capacity to carry water
by
about
85
percent,
from
about 76,000 cfs
at
the previous flood stage to
10,000
cfs.
Mudflows
also.,occurred
May
18
on
Muddy
River
and
Pine Creek,
which
drain
the
east
and
southeastern flanks
of
Mount
St.
Helens
and
empty
into Swift
Reservoir.
From
records of reservoir
levels,
these
flows
amounted
to about
13,000
acre-feet.
This
volume
was
determined
from
the
change
and
stage of the
reservoir operated
by
Pacific
Power
and
Light
Company.
We
are also in the pro-
cess
of
measuring the
peak·
flows
at
each
of these streams.
The
greatest
immediate
hazard resulting
from
the
May
18
eruption
is
the
flood potential
on
the Cowlitz River in the Castle
Rock-Kelso-Longview
area.
The
river
is
now
at
or near flood stage with only
normal
seasonal flows.
Even
moderate
s_torms
in the basin could cause serious flooding.
The
floodplain
delineation
maps
and
river
profiles
developed for the several
HUD
flood
Insurance Studies in the area are
now
completely obsolete.
Beginning
on
May
19, the
Survey
began
developing a
new
surface-water
model
of the Cowlitz River using data available
from
the previous
HUD
studies
and
field
measurements
and
observations of the sediment deposited in
the cross sections.
Tudor
Engineering
was
most
cooperative in providing
river-profile
and
cross-section data acquired for the flood-insurance studies
conducted
by
them.
Other data
were
furnished
by
the
Corps
of Engineers,
and
coordination of the
Corps
and
Survey
field
parties
speeded
up
the
work.
The
model
was
completed
on
May
24
and
the
first
profiles
and
flood
delineation
maps
were
furnished to
FEMA
for
distribution
on
May
25.
This
was
a
"first
cut"
model
based
on
the previously acquired
field
data with
most
of
the
new
underwater sections being estimated. Detailed
field
surveys
of
cross-
section with the sediment deposition in the stream
and
overbank
were
initiated
on
May
19
and
completed
on
June
6. Again, coordination
of
the
USGS
effort
with the
Corps
greatly
facilitated
and
speeded
this
effort.
The
field
data
have
been
applied to the surface-water
model
and
a
fully
rigorous
model
was
completed
on
June
10. This
model
can
be
used
to evaluate
any
projected
flows
on
the Cowlitz and/or
any
channel changes.
14