NATIONAL LOW INCOME HOUSING COALITION 6
LONG-TERM RENTAL RECOVERY: A Case Study of Highly Impacted Communities in New Jersey
Political pressures may factor into why fewer resources
are dedicated to rental housing during disaster
recovery. “Not in my backyard” (NIMBY) sentiments
generally generate opposition to rental housing,
particularly affordable rental housing. Similar sentiments
can influence disaster recovery (Aldrich, 2012; Lowe,
2012). Beyond NIMBYism, the fact that poor renters
are more likely to be displaced from their communities
immediately after a disaster can mean their voices are
not represented in public meetings when recovery
decisions are made (Rumbach & Makarewicz, 2016;
Hamideh & Rongerude, 2018).
Methods and Data
Sources
This report utilizes a case study examining the region
where Superstorm Sandy caused the greatest damage
to rental housing in New Jersey. The region includes
Atlantic, Ocean, and Monmouth counties, which are
adjacent counties located directly along the New Jersey
coastline. These three counties combined accounted
for more than three-quarters of all damaged homes in
the state (NJ DCA, 2013; FEMA, 2019).
Quantitative data from FEMA IHP, the American
Community Survey (ACS), and New Jersey’s MOD IV
property tax system provided a limited framework to
analyze the long-term trends in rental housing after
Superstorm Sandy. Data from FEMA IHP were used to
measure damage to rental housing, 5-year data from
the ACS provided longitudinal data on households and
the affordable housing stock, and the MOD IV property
tax system provided parcel-level, longitudinal data on
property values and tax assessments. Given its limited
sample size, ACS estimates for small communities
are subject to low reliability. We used tax assessment
data and key stakeholder interviews to explore trends
suggested by the ACS. Throughout the report we
focused on rental homes assumed to be available year-
round and did not include seasonal or vacation homes.
We employed qualitative interviews with a convenience
sample of 20 stakeholders who had direct knowledge
of the rental housing recovery in the three counties
to gain a deeper understanding of the rental housing
recovery after Sandy. We chose the interviewees based
on their knowledge and experiences related to rental
housing recovery. Stakeholders included state and local
government officials, housing and recovery program
administrators, for-profit and non-profit real estate
practitioners, and staff from key civil society groups.
Many of the interviewees shared their perspectives not
only as professionals involved in the recovery, but as
survivors of Superstorm Sandy.
The interviews were semi-structured, allowing for
open-ended conversations, and focused on three main
topics: the state of rental housing prior to Sandy, the
immediate and long-term impacts of Sandy on rental
housing, and the underlying issues of the rental housing
recovery. All interviews were conducted by phone by
at least two NLIHC staff and lasted approximately one
hour. The authors completed interviews in August 2019
and subsequently analyzed and compared notes to
identify themes. Themes from the interviews were also
compared to the quantitative findings. The interviews
helped corroborate and explain findings from the
quantitative analysis, added essential context, and
provided further insights into challenges for the long-
term rental housing recovery after Sandy.
Findings
Flooding was the primary source of damage to the
housing stock in Atlantic, Monmouth, and Ocean
Counties, leading to both immediate structural damage
and mold. This damage occurred at a time when all
three counties were already experiencing significant
affordable housing shortages for the lowest-income
renters. In 2012, Atlantic County had a deficit of 5,290
affordable and available rental homes for households
earning less than 30% of the area median income;
Monmouth County had a shortage of 10,520; and
Ocean County had a shortage of 8,580 (NLIHC, 2013).
Thirty-two thousand renters from the three counties
applied for assistance from FEMA IHP. More than
11,000 rental homes inspected by FEMA in the three
counties had damage, accounting for 69% of the
state’s damaged rental homes, and the 14,072 renters
approved for IHP assistance accounted for 65% of all
approved renters in the state (Table 2).
The state’s supply of rental homes has increased by
6% between 2011 and 2017 from homeownership
conversions to rentals and new construction. Despite
the significant damage to their rental housing stock,
Atlantic, Ocean, and Monmouth Counties saw similar
increases (Table 3). Low-cost affordable rental homes
with monthly rents less than $750, however, have
been lost. Assuming a 30% rent-to-income ratio for
affordability, this rent level would be considered
affordable for households with annual incomes of
$30,000, which is approximately the income-threshold
for extremely low-income families in Monmouth and
Ocean Counties.
A jurisdiction’s low-cost rental housing stock is
impacted by numerous factors in addition to weather-
related shocks, including population and demographic
changes, development costs, consumer preferences,