Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida

Relevance and

Feasibility of

Mangrove Insurance

in Mexico, Florida,

and The Bahamas

Relevance and Feasibility

of Mangrove Insurance

in Mexico, Florida,

and The Bahamas

Authors

Martha Rogers

Fernando Secaira Fajardo

Laura Geselbracht

Marcia Musgrove

Eric Roberts

Joseph Schmidt

Solomon Gibson

1. The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA

Cover image: A wooden path winds through

mangroves in Lucayan National Park on Grand

Bahama Island, The Bahamas. © Shane Gross.

Back cover image: Sub-adult lemon sharks

move away from the safety of the mangroves to

forage in the nearby seagrass beds. The man-

groves are teaming with life and provide critical

habitat for numerous species, The Bahamas.

©Jillian Morris/TNC Photo Contest 2021.

Graphic Design

.Puntoaparte Editores

We gratefully acknowledge the funding of AXA XL and Builders Initia-

tive Foundation. We would like to thank our colleagues who provided

technical expertise and insightful comments in the drafting of this

report, Lianna McFarlane-Connelly, Mark Way, Rod Braun, and Amy

Bruno. In addition, we would like to thank our partners who worked

with us to produce the first two reports that are the foundation for

this report. These partners include: Jorge Herrera Silveira, Pedro Javier

Robles Toral, Jesús Andrés Canul Cabrera, and Lucía Guerra Cano at

the Department of Marine Resources CINVESTAV-Mérida; Claudia

Teutli Hernández at UNAM; and Pelayo Menéndez, Chris Lowrie, and

Michael W. Beck at University of California, Santa Cruz.

This report is the final of three reports to be released by The Nature

Conservancy (TNC) in collaboration with our partners at AXA XL,

CINVESTAV-Merida, and the University of California, Santa Cruz. The

reports are part of a year-long project to assess the feasibility of a man-

grove insurance policy in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. In the first

report, we document the types of mangrove damages that may result

from hurricanes, the appropriate restoration techniques to adequately

restore damaged mangroves, and the costs of these restoration efforts.

In the second report, we document the protective value of mangroves

in the study region. In this final report, we aggregate information from

the first two reports and identify specific areas where a mangrove

insurance policy would be most cost-effective. We also summarize the

efforts of our market analysis in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas, and

identify specific locations where a mangrove insurance policy could be

piloted. As described in this report, tropical storms and hurricanes can

cause significant damages to mangroves and restoration costs can be

high. Financing these restoration activities, through innovative finance

mechanisms like an insurance policy, will be critical to ensuring that the

protective benefits of mangroves are sustained in the future.

The work for this report was conducted from March 2021 through

September 2022. The findings do not take into account any impacts

or changes that may have resulted from the landfall of Hurricane Ian

in late September 2022.

Rogers, M., Secaira-Fajardo, F., Geselbracht,

L., Musgrove, M., Roberts, E., Schmidt, J., &

Gibson, S. (2022). “Relevance and Feasibility

of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida,

and The Bahamas.” The Nature Conservancy,

Arlington, VA.

Mangroves often serve as a first line of coastal defense

during tropical storms and have been shown to reduce

wave height up to 66% over the first 100 meters of forest

(McIvor et al., 2012a). In general, mangrove root systems

help stabilize the soil and reduce erosion while the roots,

trunk, and canopy dissipate wave energy and slow storm

surge penetration (McIvor et al., 2012a; McIvor et al.,

2012b; Thampanya et al., 2006).

In this study, we focus on mangroves in Mexico, Florida,

and The Bahamas, where they provide more than $17

billion in flood protection benefits (measured over 30

years using a 4% discount rate, 2020 USD) (Menéndez

et al., 2022). Erosion and hurricanes remain two of the

primary threats to mangrove loss in much of this area

(Goldberg et al., 2020). Identifying adequate and reliable

funding sources to finance the restoration and protection

of mangroves is essential to ensuring their resilience and

the resilience of the communities that they protect.

Mangrove insurance is an important new source for this

funding. Mangrove insurance can serve as a risk-trans-

fer tool that provides immediate funding for mangrove

restoration and repair following hurricane damage. This

quick response hastens mangrove recovery time and

enhances the resilience of mangroves to future hurricanes

(Herrera-Silveira et al., 2022).

Over the course of 2021, we explored the feasibility for

a mangrove insurance policy in Mexico, Florida, and The

Bahamas, where coastal communities and infrastructure

are especially vulnerable to hurricanes. Our work builds

on earlier studies that showed promising enabling con-

ditions in these places and provided detailed analyses

of the protective benefits of mangroves and techniques

and costs for their restoration (Beck et al., 2021; Her-

rera-Silveira et al., 2022; Menéndez et al., 2022). Our

stakeholder engagements focused on six key questions:

1. How valuable are the flood protection benefits of

mangroves?

2. Are there stakeholders who value or benefit from the

flood protection of mangroves?

3. Are stakeholders interested in managing risk to

mangroves and potentially buying an insurance?

4. Are the stakeholders legally entitled to buy the

insurance?

5. Do the stakeholders have the capacity to pay an

insurance premium?

6. Is there an existing institution or financial entity that

could convene beneficiaries to buy the insurance?

Through our engagements, we found that strong interest

exists among stakeholders to continue exploring how a

mangrove insurance policy might be designed and man-

aged. We identified nine locations—three in Mexico, four

in Florida, and two in The Bahamas—as potential sites

for a mangrove insurance pilot policy. These locations

were identified based on the presence of large areas of

mangroves, the high protective value of mangroves, and

strong interest from key stakeholders.

While these stakeholder engagements make us optimistic

about opportunities for a mangrove insurance policy in

these high-risk locations, more work remains. Future analy-

ses will need to consider how to design the insurance policy

and manage the payouts to ensure the appropriate resto-

ration work takes place. As we move forward with this work,

TNC’s goal is to launch a pilot mangrove insurance policy

and demonstrate that, when used appropriately, these

types of risk transfer tools can be a cost-effective means of

protecting our coastlines and coastal communities.

Executive Summary

Table of Contents

Introduction .........................................................................................................................................1

Flood protection beneﬁts of mangroves ................................................ 3

Mangrove degradation and loss ........................................................................... 5

Mangrove damage can be reduced ..................................................................9

Cost-eective locations for mangrove restoration and

protection ............................................................................................................................................... 10

Insuring mangroves ................................................................................................................ 11

Developing a mangrove insurance policy ....................................................................................................12

Opportunities for mangrove insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas ..............................16

Mexico .....................................................................................................................................................17

Florida  ....................................................................................................................................................19

The Bahamas  ........................................................................................................................................21

Conclusions: Outlook and opportunities ...........................................23

References ............................................................................................................................................26

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 1

Introduction

Mangrove forests cover nearly 14 million hectares of trop-

ical and subtropical coasts across 118 countries (Spalding

et al., 2010). These critical ecosystems provide a range

of benefits to people and properties. First, mangroves are

some of the world’s most productive fishing grounds. They

serve as important nurseries for many reef fish popula-

tions, such as the yellowtail, and can have a large impact

on the fish communities of nearby coral reefs (Mumby,

2004; Serafy, 2015). In addition, recreational fishing in

mangroves for fish such as tarpon, bonefish, and snapper

can be a significant source of economic benefits to the

local economy. In The Bahamas, this fishing is estimated to

generate $169 million annually in total economic benefits

(Fedler, 2018). Second, mangroves store a disproportionate

amount of carbon relative to their landcover (Hutchison,

2014). Mangrove soils have been estimated to store more

than 6.4 billion tons of carbon globally (Sanderman, 2018).

And, finally, mangroves serve as a first line of defense in the

event of tropical storms. Mangroves have been shown to

dissipate wave energy, slow storm surge penetration, and

reduce erosion (McIvor et al., 2012a; McIvor et al., 2012b;

Thampanya et al., 2006). Globally, mangroves provide over

$65 billion in flood protection benefits annually and protect

over 15 million people (Menéndez et al., 2020).

Today, mangroves are at increasing risk from direct and

indirect human activities. Between 1980 and 2005 alone,

nearly 20% of global mangrove cover was lost (Giri et

al., 2010; Spalding et al., 2010). Mangrove clearing for

aquaculture or urban settlements is the primary driver of

mangrove loss worldwide, with 80% of this loss occurring

in just six countries: Indonesia, Myanmar, Malaysia, the

Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam (Goldberg et al.,

2020). Outside of these six countries, the primary drivers

of mangrove loss are erosion and hurricanes (Goldberg

et al., 2020). The frequency and intensity of hurricanes

is expected to increase in the coming years.

When a hurricane passes over a mangrove forest, it

can cause critical changes to the structure of mangrove

trees, topography, hydrology, or sediment characteristics

(Herrera-Silveira et al., 2022).

Following a hurricane

event, mangroves can naturally recover in three to five

years but full recovery, especially when following a more

severe storm, may take up to 20 years (Danielson etal.,

2017; Imbert, 2018). Active restoration and repair of

mangroves following hurricane damage can hasten their

recovery time and enhance their resilience to future

hurricanes (Herrera-Silveira et al., 2022). The ability of

mangroves to naturally recover following a hurricane may

also become compromised in the future if the frequency

of severe hurricanes increases, as is predicted to occur

with climate change (Kossin, 2020).

Therefore, funding the post-storm restoration and repair

of mangroves is critical to ensuring that the flood pro-

tection and other benefits of mangrove ecosystems are

maintained in the future. A mangrove insurance policy

represents an innovative financial mechanism to fund

this repair work. In regions where the flood protection

benefits of mangroves are high, protecting and restoring

mangroves is a cost-effective means of reducing the risks

to people and property from hurricanes. A mangrove in-

surance policy can be used to guarantee funding to repair

mangroves after damage is sustained from a hurricane,

much like other insurance policies are used to repair

built infrastructure. The Nature Conservancy (TNC) and

the Government of Quintana Roo, Mexico, launched an

insurance policy for coral reefs and beaches in 2019 that

demonstrates this concept (TNC, 2021).

1 In this report, we use the term hurricanes when referring to tropical

cyclones as we focus our discussion on mangroves in the Gulf of

Mexico and Caribbean, where tropical cyclones are referred to as

hurricanes.

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 2

In this report, we summarize findings from a feasibility

assessment aimed at identifying potential locations to

pilot a mangrove insurance policy in Mexico, Florida, and

The Bahamas. This work builds upon a pre-feasibility

assessment that showed that these three regions have

some of the largest areas of mangroves that would be

cost-effective to restore for their flood risk reduction

benefits and that these regions are also most likely to

have suitable insurance market and governance condi-

tions to make a policy feasible and attractive (Beck et al.,

2020). During this feasibility assessment, we engaged

key stakeholders in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas to

identify who may be an appropriate mangrove insurance

customer, what is their interest in purchasing such a

policy, and how might the mangrove insurance policy be

structured. The goal of these discussions was to assess

if there is a need for mangrove insurance and to identify

potential purchasers of the policy. Figure 1 highlights the

guiding questions that we used to direct this work.

In each of the following sections, we present key elements

that are needed for insurance to be a suitable tool for

protecting and restoring mangroves. In the following two

sections, we show that mangroves provide valuable flood

protection benefits in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas

and that many mangrove stands in these regions are at

risk of damage or loss from hurricanes. We then show

that within each of these regions, there are many locations

where it would be highly cost-effective to restore man-

groves. In these locations, mangroves could be repaired

post-hurricane to hasten their recovery and ensure that

their protective benefits are maintained in the future.

Together, this information provides the rationale for man-

grove insurance. Next, we summarize key learnings from

our stakeholder engagements in Mexico, Florida, and The

Bahamas. We used the stakeholder engagements to identify

potential buyers of a mangrove insurance policy, potential

locations where a policy could be piloted, and to prioritize

key questions to address in subsequent phases of the work.

Figure 1: Guiding questions for mangrove insurance feasibility assessment. Adapted from Secaira Fajardo et al., (2019).

Assess if a natural asset

needs insurance

Does the natural asset provide a valuable service?

Are there stakeholders who value the natural asset?

Are there stakeholders interested in repairing the damages?

Who is the entitled to buy insurance for the natural asset?

Do the interested stakeholders have the

capacity to pay the premium?

Is the cost of restoration above the ﬁnancial capacity of

stakeholders and/or will they prefer to tranfer the risk?

Is this risk insurable?

Is it possible to repair the damages to the natural asset, so

the services it provides can stay functional or be recovered?

Is the cost of repairing the asset

lower than the avoided losses?

Is insurance needed for the natural asset?

Are there potential buyers?

Is the natural asset at risk? Can an event severely

damage it and impair their ecosystem services?

Are there stakeholders who

could buy the insurance?

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 3

Flood protection

beneﬁts of mangroves

IMPACT WITH MANGROVES

IMPACT WITHOUT MANGROVES

Figure 2: Key steps and data for estimating the flood protection benefits provided by mangroves (adapted from Beck et al.

2019). © Puntoaparte Editores.

Mangroves often serve as a first line of coastal defense

during tropical storms and have been shown to reduce

wave height up to 66% over the first 100 meters of forest

(McIvor et al., 2012a). In general, mangrove root systems

help stabilize the soil and reduce erosion while the roots,

trunk, and canopy dissipate wave energy and slow storm

surge penetration (McIvor et al., 2012a; McIvor et al.,

2012b; Thampanya et al., 2006).

Step 1 Step 3Step 2

Step 4

Step 5

Offshore dynamics:

Oceanographic data

are combined to assess

offshore sea states.

Habitat: Effects of

mangroves on wave

run-up are estimated.

Nearshore dynamics:

Waves are modified by

nearshore hydrodynamics.

Impacts: Flood heights

are extended inland

along profiles (every 1

kilometer) for 1 in 10, 25,

50, 100-year events with

and without mangroves to

estimate impacts.

Consequences: The consequences to land, people, and built capital

damaged under the flooded areas are estimated.

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 4

Our study region is home to over one million hect-

ares of mangroves—more than 500,000 hectares in

Mexico, nearly 400,000 in Florida, and 40,000 in The

Bahamas.

To better understand the flood protection

benefits of these mangroves, TNC worked with science

partners at the University of California Santa Cruz

to estimate these benefits at the 5-kilometer level

(previous global estimates used a 20-kilometer scale)

(Beck et al., 2020; Menéndez et al., 2020; Menéndez

et al., 2022).

Figure 2 outlines the general steps used

to model the flood protection benefits of mangroves,

which are estimated as the difference in inland flooding

damage with and without mangroves. Damage curves

were used to relate the level of flooding with an esti-

2 In Mexico, our study region only includes mangroves on the eastern

side of the country and excludes mangroves on the Pacific Coast.

Across all of Mexico, there are over 900,000 hectares of man-

groves (Menéndez et al., 2022).

3 While each coastal segment is approximately 5 kilometers in

width, the length of the segment can vary. The majority of study

units are less than 100 kilometers, but some are as large as 1,000

kilometers or more. Moreover, very narrow islands—such as many

in The Bahamas—are considered as a single study unit because the

splitting of the islands would make the flooding models functionally

difficult to run.

Figure 3: Present value of the flood protection benefits of mangroves in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas over 30 years

assuming a 4% discount rate. Analysis excludes western Mexico. Source: Menéndez et al. 2022.

mated number of impacted people and dollar value of

damaged building stock.

Figure 3 shows the present value of flood protection ben-

efits for each 5-kilometer study unit assuming a 30-year

life and a discount rate of 4%, which is consistent with

discount rates used in World Bank project assessments.

The present value of benefits are greatest in areas where

there are significant mangrove stands in front of or near

high value building stock. Across our entire study region,

we estimate the present value of flood protection bene-

fits of mangroves to be $17 billion—$2 billion in Mexico,

$13billion in Florida, and $2 billion in The Bahamas.

4 For people, the models assume that 0% of people are impacted with

flooding up to 0.5 meters and that 100% of people are impacted

with flooding greater than 0.5 meters (Beck, 2020). For building

stock, the model uses the damage functions from Huizinga et al.

(2017). Generally, any flooding greater than 6 meters will result in

100% damage of building stock.

5 Estimates rely on global asset data and are presented in 2020 USD.

In the full analysis, mangrove benefits were also estimated using a

7% discount rate (Menéndez et al., 2022).

6 Across all of Mexico, mangroves provide $6.2 billion in flood pro-

tection benefits (Menéndez et al., 2022); however, our study region

only includes mangroves located on the eastern coast.

Mexico

Florida

The Bahamas

Gulf of

Mexico

Caribbean

Sea

Present Value

($ million)

>0 - 23

23 - 97

97 - 286

286 - 683

683 - 1,077

United States

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 5

Mangrove

degradation and loss

Human-made and natural causes result in mangrove loss

and degradation, threatening these systems at a global

scale. Human activity was the primary driver of mangrove

loss from 2000 to 2016 at the global scale, though natural

causes were one of the largest drivers in many areas of the

world, particularly outside of Asia and the Pacific (Gold-

berg et al., 2020). In a 2010 review of mangrove species

globally, eleven of the 70 species assessed were estimated

to be at an elevated threat of extinction, with two mangrove

species critically endangered (Polidoro et al., 2010).

Figure 4 outlines many of the primary threats to mangrove

systems around the world. The human-induced risks from

development and pollution pose an undeniable threat to

mangrove systems. Often, development and pollution

can stress mangrove systems, making mangroves more

susceptible to high levels of tree mortality following storm

events (Lewis et al., 2016). Many of the risks associated

with climate change – changes in temperature, changes in

precipitation, and rising sea levels – will lead to mangrove

expansion in some regions of the world and mangrove

die-off in other regions. For example, in Central America,

where many models predict temperature to increase and

precipitation to decrease during the wet season, man-

grove systems will likely become stressed due to limited

sediment supply and increased water stress (Ward et al.,

2016). Conversely, on the east coast of Florida, the area of

mangroves has doubled at the northern end of their range

over the last 28 years as the frequency of extreme cold

events has decreased (Cavanaugh et al., 2014).

Hurricanes are expected to pose an increasing threat to

mangroves in the future. In 2017 alone, over one million

hectares of mangroves were affected by tropical storms

or hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, the largest mangrove

area to be affected by storms in the last four decades

(Taillie et al., 2020). As climate change intensifies, con-

ditions in the Atlantic Ocean are predicted to become

more favorable to hurricanes (Herrera-Silveira et al.,

2022) including an increase in the frequency of severe

hurricanes, an increase in rainfall from hurricanes, and

an increase in storm surge as a result of sea-level rise

(Christensen et al., 2013; Knutson et al., 2010; Knutson et

al., 2015; Kossin et al., 2017; Patricola and Wehner, 2018

Sobel et al., 2016; Vitousek et al., 2017).

Hurricanes tend to impact and damage mangroves in four

ways (Herrera-Silveira et al., 2022):

1. Changes in the structure, composition, and biomass

of mangrove trees, such as defoliation, changes in

species dominance, or root detachment;

2. Changes in the topography of the mangrove forest,

such as increases or decreases in the elevation and/

or the opening or closing of channels and outlets;

3. Changes in the hydrology of the mangrove system,

such as changes in freshwater and marine water

balance or an increase in flood periods and levels; and

4. Changes in sediment characteristics, such as

changes in sediment salinization or hypoxia.

However, the extent and severity of mangrove forest dam-

age following a hurricane event is a function of several

factors, including (Herrera-Silveira et al., 2022):

1. Forest structure: In general, mangrove trees with

larger trunk diameters and/or that are taller will be

most affected by a hurricane;

2. Ecological type: Fringing mangroves, located parallel

to the coastline, will suffer more damage than other

mangrove types;

3. Fragmentation/Degradation: In general, man-

groves located near populated areas or that have

compromised hydrologic flows will be most affected

by a hurricane; and

4. Hurricane Path: In the Caribbean, mangroves located

in the hurricane eye walls and to the right sides of the

path of the eye will be the most affected by a hurricane.

Figure 4: Primary drivers of mangrove loss and degradation

Note: “ “ denotes a projected loss to mangrove area and “ ” a projected increase to mangrove area.

A “ “ denotes that there are some regions of the globe where mangrove area may increase and others where mangrove area may decrease.

Hurricanes

Changes in

Temperature

Changes in

Precipitation

Sea-Level Rise

& Shoreline

Erosion

Pollution Development

Strong winds and storm surge can

uproot and kill mangrove trees,

knock down trunks and branches,

and defoliate the canopy which

can modify sediment dynamics,

succession patterns, and nutrient

cycles in the mangrove system

(Baldwin et al., 2001; Herbert et al.,

1999; Herrera-Silveira et al., 2022).

As temperature rises and the

frequency of extreme cold events

decreases, defined as days cooler

than -4°C (25°F), mangroves

will expand poleward into salt

marsh communities. As tem-

perature exceeds 32°C (100°F),

photosynthesis productivity

declines and salinity can increase,

stressing existing mangrove

systems (Ward et al., 2016).

Regions projected to receive an

increase in precipitation, such as

Southeast Asia, could see man-

grove expansion as they migrate

further inland (Alongi, 2015; Ward

et al., 2016). Regions projected to

receive a decrease in precipitation,

such as parts of the Caribbean and

Central America, could see man-

grove dieback as systems become

stressed with increased soil salinity

and decreased growth and produc-

tivity rates (Ward et al., 2016).

To avoid drowning, mangroves

must move to higher elevations. If

blocked by development, they can

suffer from “coastal squeeze” – in-

stances where there is no suitable

space for them to migrate (Alongi,

2015). In addition, recent research

suggests that mangroves may not

be able to expand fast enough to

keep up with the increasing rate

of sea level rise within the next

30 years (Saintilan et al., 2020).

Stormwater, agriculture, and

sewage runoff pollute mangroves

and can cause already stressed

mangroves to degrade further

or, in extreme events, can kill

mangrove trees (Garcés-Ordóñez

et al., 2019; World Bank 2019).

Direct deforestation of mangroves

for shrimp aquaculture, timber,

or coastal development results

in mangrove loss. Indirect effects

of development can be equally

lethal by changing hydrology and

blocking water flows to mangrove

systems that can increase salinity

and/or reduce sediment levels

(Lewis et al., 2016). Dredge and fill

activities can also lead to excessive

flooding of mangrove habitat.

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 7

Mangrove damage from hurricanes in the Caribbean has

been shown to be primarily a function of wind speed

(Figure 5); the relationship is nonlinear with little damage

at low wind speeds, then increasing damage with higher

winds, and near complete damage at the highest wind

speeds. Previous research shows some evidence of dam-

ages around 100 kilometers per hour (e.g., tropical storm

1. Slight defoliation

2. Breakage of small branches

3. Suspended particles in water column

EXTENSIVE

111-129 mph (178-208 km/h)

MINIMUM

74-95 mph (119-153 km/h)

1. Breakage of large branches

2. Large volumes of fallen woody material

3. Extensive flooding (2.7 to 3.6 meters)

4. Hydrological flow disruption

5. Sediment salinization

1. No presence of seedlings or juveniles

2. Large trees downed/uprooted

3. Decrease in density and complexity

4. Catastrophic and prolonged flooding (higher than 5.5 meters)

5. Sediment salinization

6. Opening of inlets through barrier islands and dune systems

1. Large trees downed/uprooted

2. Change in structure and composition (height and size)

3. Extreme flooding (3.9 to 5.5 meters)

4. Sea water intrusion

5. Opening of inlets through barrier islands or dune systems

CATASTROPHIC

157 mph or highers (>252 km/h)

EXTREME

130-156 mph (209-251 km/h)

1. Small and medium branch breakage

2. Moderate flooding (up to 2.5 meters)

3. Moderate channel sedimentation

MODERATE

96-110 mph (154-177 km/h)

Figure 5: Extent of damage to mangroves based on hurricane intensity, using the Saffir-Simpson scale. Modified

from Krauss and Osland, 2020.

level winds) and much higher rates of loss at wind speeds

of 130 kilometers per hour (e.g., Category 1 level winds)

and above (Imbert, 2018). In recent work, Menéndez et

al. (2022) relied on assessed mangrove loss and recovery

from six hurricanes spanning 30 years (Han et al., 2018)

to estimate the relationship between wind speed and

mangrove loss at wind speeds exceeding 110kilometers

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 8

per hour.

Using this estimated relationship, they sim-

ulated the projected damage from 6,635 hurricanes of

varying strengths, representing 1,000 simulated years.

From these simulations, they were then able to estimate

the expected annual loss of mangroves from hurricanes

in 27 sub-regions in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas.

7 A Category 1 hurricane has measured wind speeds in excess of 119

kilometers per hour.

Figure 6: Annual expected loss of mangroves caused by tropical storms and hurricanes in 27 sub-regions across Mexico, Florida,

and The Bahamas. Source: Menéndez et al. 2022.

The expected annual losses of mangroves from hur-

ricanes varies from 1.4% to nearly 8% (Figure 6) of

current mangrove stands across the 27 sub-regions.

While all ten sub-regions in The Bahamas had a rela-

tively high—greater than 4%—expected annual loss

of mangroves, Mexico and Florida had more variability

across the sub-regions. In Mexico, the central region of

Quintana Roo had the highest expected annual loss at

6.9%), and in Florida, Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River, and

Brevard Counties all had expected annual losses of 7.9%.

United States

The Bahamas

Florida

Mexico

Gulf of

Mexico

Caribbean

Sea

Atlantic

Ocean

Annual Expected

Mangrove Loss (%)

1% - 2%

2% - 3%

3% - 4%

4% - 5%

5% - 6%

6% - 7%

7% - 8%

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 9

Mangrove damage

can be reduced

In the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, many mangrove

stands are particularly vulnerable to hurricane damage

due to low tidal ranges and the frequency of hurricane

events (Lugo et al., 1981; Ward et al., 2016). Consequent-

ly, mangrove species in these regions evolved the ability

to naturally recover from hurricanes (Herrera-Silveira et

al., 2022). With Category 1 and Category 2 hurricanes,

many mangroves in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico

will naturally recover in less than five years (Danielson

et al., 2017). With hurricanes of Category 3 and above,

natural recovery of mangroves may take as long as 20

years (Imbert, 2018). However, the increasing frequency

of severe hurricanes predicted with climate change can

inhibit the natural recovery of mangroves, resulting in an

accumulation of damage that can eventually lead to the

death of mangrove trees (Herrera-Silveira et al., 2022;

Taillie et al., 2020). Active post-storm restoration and

repair of mangroves can hasten mangrove recovery time,

making them more resilient to hurricanes in the future

(Herrera-Silveira et al., 2022; Imbert, 2018).

While the specific restoration and repair activities that

will be needed following a storm event depend on the

type and magnitude of damage, as well as the pre-storm

state of the forest, the general categories of restoration

and repair include (Herrera-Silveira, 2022):

8 For the purposes of this report, we use the definitions of restoration and

repair as outlined in Berg et al. (2020). Restoration refers to ecological

restoration and repair refers to actions taken to hasten recovery and

minimize further damage after an event to restore its flood protection

benefits. Generally speaking, repair is what occurs soon after damage

happens, while restoration is a longer-term process.

1. Hydrologic rehabilitation, including dredging

channels and rehabilitating water crossings;

2. Topographic rehabilitation, including sediment

removal and the preparation of dispersion

centers; and

3. Reforestation, including the use of propagules

and/or nursery-grown seedlings.

The cost of these activities can vary widely depending

on factors such as the type of restoration and repair, cost

of materials and labor, and the distance and accessibility

of the site (Herrera-Silveira et al., 2022). Reforestation

should generally be used as a last resort, after both

hydrologic and topographic rehabilitation of the site and

natural seed and propagule dispersal has taken place

(Herrera-Silveira et al., 2022).

We assessed 64 mangrove restoration projects and as-

sociated costs across Mexico (16), Florida (16 in eastern

Florida and 27 in western Florida), and The Bahamas (5)

(Herrera-Silveira et al., 2022).

We found that in Mexico the

median restoration cost was $4,538 per hectare; in eastern

Florida the median restoration cost was $118,524; in west-

ern Florida the median restoration cost was $54,653; and

in The Bahamas the median restoration cost was $35,955

(Herrera-Silveira et al., 2022; Menéndez et al., 2022).

9 We treated eastern and western Florida separately due to large

differences in restoration project costs in the two areas.

10 The mangrove restoration projects that we identified took place

over 30 years. All restoration costs were converted to U.S. dollars

(USD) and adjusted for inflation to 2021 USD.

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 10

Cost-eective

locations for

mangrove restoration

and protection

Figure 7: Benefit to cost ratio for 5-kilometer coastal study units, assuming a median restoration cost of $4,538 per hectare for

projects in Mexico, $118,524 per hectare in eastern Florida, $54,653 per hectare in western Florida, and $35,955 per hectare

across The Bahamas. Analysis excludes western Mexico. Source: Menéndez et al., 2022.

We compared the median restoration costs with the pres-

ent value of mangrove flood protection benefits (Figure

3) to obtain a benefit to cost ratio (BCR) for mangrove

restoration. Figure 7 identifies the BCR for 5-kilometer

study units across our study region in Mexico, Florida, and

The Bahamas. The BCR exceeds one in areas where the

flood protection benefits of mangroves, measured over 30

years using a 4% discount rate, exceed the costs of man-

grove restoration on a per hectare basis (see Menéndez

et al., 2022 for a full description of methods).

We identified nearly 250 5-kilometer coastal study

units spanning 80,000 hectares of mangroves and

1,200 kilometers of coastline where the BCR was

higher than one, indicating that there are many

cost-effective opportunities for mangrove restoration

in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas. This includes

more than 100 5-kilometer-wide study units spanning

more than 50,000 hectares of mangroves and 500

kilometers of coastline in Mexico; more than 100

5-kilometer-wide study units spanning nearly 20,000

hectares of mangroves and more than 600 kilome-

ters of coastline in Florida; and more than a dozen

5-kilometer-wide study units spanning nearly 3,000

hectares of mangroves and more than 60 kilometers

of coastline in The Bahamas.

United States

The Bahamas

Florida

Mexico

Gulf of

Mexico

Caribbean

Sea

Atlantic

Ocean

Benefit to

Cost Ratio

1.0 - 1.8

<1.0

1.8 - 3.2

3.2 - 4.9

4.9 - 7.8

7.8 - 12.0

12.0 - 19.6

19.6 - 30.4

30.4 - 83.2

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 11

Insuring

mangroves

In many areas of Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas,

major hurricanes of Category 3 or more, make landfall

more often than in other parts of the world (Krauss and

Osland, 2020). In the event of these storms, mangroves

often serve as the first line of defense in dissipating wave

energy, slowing storm surge, and reducing inland flooding.

In areas where the protective benefits of mangroves ex-

ceed the costs of mangrove restoration (e.g., those areas

where the BCR exceeds one), mangrove protection and

restoration can serve as a critical component of a broader

coastal risk management strategy.

Effectively managing the risk to mangroves requires

a comprehensive strategy that includes: (i) support of

government or other management entity for mangrove

restoration, repair, and protection; (ii) protocol for

post-damage restoration and repair; (iii) physical ca-

pacity and expertise to conduct restoration and repair;

and (iv) funding to cover costs of restoration, repair, and

protection (Figure 8). Funding these costs may require

more than one financial mechanism, for example, a

combination of a self-insuring emergency fund and a

risk-transfer mechanism such as an insurance policy.

Other potential financial mechanisms include resilience

credits and catastrophe bonds. A careful analysis will

help determine whether a mangrove insurance policy

is feasible, as compared to the other possible funding

mechanisms (Kousky and Light, 2019).

Figure 8: Effectively managing the risk to mangroves requires a comprehensive strategy. Mangrove insurance can be a cost-

effective financial mechanism to fund the restoration and repair of damaged mangroves.

Governance and

support

Restoration

capacity

Financial

mechanism

Response

protocol

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 12

Developing

a mangrove

insurance policy

Insurance serves as a risk transfer tool (Kousky and Light,

2019), where the buyer pays the insurance company a set

amount, referred to as the premium, to transfer a specified

risk to the insurance company. The buyer then receives

a guaranteed payout in the event of specified damage

(in the case of indemnity insurance) or in the event of a

predetermined level of hazard (in the case of parametric

insurance). With a mangrove insurance policy, the policy

holder may be able to insure a mangrove forest against

losses related to specified damage, a predetermined level

of the hazard or both (Beck, 2020). Figure 9 summarizes

the primary components of a mangrove insurance policy.

Insurance

Purchaser

Customer

An entity or individual may purchase an insurance policy if they

demonstrate an insurable interest, that is if they own the asset or have an

economic interest in it.

Justifying

the policy

The customer must value the benefits provided by mangroves and have

an interest in protecting and restoring them post-damage.

Policy Type

Type of

insurance

Identify the type of insurance policy, e.g., indemnity, parametric or a

combined parametric-indemnity policy.

Characteristics

of the Policy

Insured asset

Delineation of the mangroves to be insured.

Payout

Maximum amount of restoration costs covered by the insurance policy.

Policy trigger

Define the trigger of the payout, which is usually a characteristic of the

hurricane and a threshold (e.g., wind speed of 100 kilometers or more).

Loss adjustment

In the case of parametric insurance, losses will be based on an identified

trigger event (e.g., wind speed) in a specified area (e.g., polygon). In the case

of indemnity insurance, losses will be based on assessed damage at the site.

The policy must identify the source of the data and method to estimate

the payout or compensation.

Policy Price

Exposure

Exposure to hurricanes depends on the probability of hurricanes

occurring in the location of the mangroves. A fragility curve is used to

estimate the relationship between the trigger event (e.g., wind speed)

and mangrove damage.

Policy

characteristics

The main elements of the policy (payout and trigger) along with the

exposure of the site determine the cost of the policy.

Insurance Claims

Policy

beneficiary

Identify individual or entity that will receive insurance payouts and

process for effectively utilizing claims for restoration work.

Figure 9: Primary components of a mangrove insurance policy.

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 13

Insurance purchaser

Entities or individuals may purchase a mangrove insurance

policy if they can show an insurable interest (Kousky and

Light, 2019; Secaira Fajardo et al., 2019). That is, the entity

or individual must be able to demonstrate ownership and/or

that they would suffer a financial loss if the insured mangrove

was damaged. In most cases, the entities or individuals must

demonstrate a financial loss related to physical assets that

they own, though it may be possible to claim losses even if

they do not own the asset that is damaged. For example, a

fishing company whose business relies on mangroves for

fisheries production may want to insure mangroves to avoid

fishing-related business interruption and revenue loss in the

event the mangroves are damaged.

The identified entity or individual must not only have an

insurable interest in the mangrove forest but must also

find it cost-effective to purchase the insurance policy. The

entity or individual should value the benefits provided

by the mangrove forest and also be interested and able

to pay the insurance premium (Secaira Fajardo et al.,

2019). Because of additional challenges with creating an

insurance policy for a single private property owner, we

identified the public sector as the most feasible market

in previous work (Beck et al., 2020).

Policy type

There are two main types of insurance policies: (i) indem-

nity policies which base payouts on assessed losses; and

(ii) parametric policies which base payouts on observed

events. While payouts related to indemnity policies

may take several weeks to be disbursed after losses are

assessed, payouts related to parametric policies can be

disbursed within a few days of the observed event.

The type of insurance policy used to cover a mangrove

forest will depend on the identified restoration needs

post-storm. For example, if all of the required mangrove

restoration must be performed immediately following the

storm event, then a parametric policy will be the best

option. But, if some of the required restoration can be

performed several months after the storm event then a

combined parametric-indemnity policy may be more suit-

able. Recent research suggests that inland areas prone to

hydrologic isolation were most susceptible to mangrove

Black mangroves, roots, and breathing tubes, Exuma Cays Land and Sea Park, The Bahamas. © Jeff Yonover.

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 14

dieback six months following a storm event, suggesting

that delayed assessment of hydrologic management

needs may be important in developing an effective post-

storm response (Lagomasino et al., 2021).

Characteristics of the policy

The first step in creating a mangrove insurance policy is

to identify the insured asset. That is, the specific area

of mangrove to be covered by the policy. In general, an

insurance policy will have a payout up to the replacement

cost of the insured asset. For mangrove insurance, the

payout can be estimated using restoration costs for the

site. In earlier work, we have documented a range of man-

grove restoration costs per hectare (Herrera-Silveira et al.,

2022). The actual restoration costs on site will depend on

local factors such as site accessibility, post-storm dam-

age, and local labor costs. Once the insured mangroves

have been identified, site-specific restoration costs can

be estimated using past storm damage to the mangrove

forest and all restoration activities and costs that were

incurred as a result of this damage. In the absence of

these data, restoration costs can be estimated based on

observed characteristics of the site and input from local

restoration experts.

Any mangrove insurance policy will need to carefully

state when the policy payouts will be triggered, referred

to as a trigger event. The trigger event is typically defined

around a specific parameter, such as wind speed, occur-

ring at or beyond a specific threshold in a designated area,

referred to as a trigger polygon. The polygon generally

encompasses an area several kilometers around the in-

sured asset, as wind speeds above 100 kilometers per

hour can occur up to 85 kilometers from the center of

the hurricane (Secaira Fajardo et al., 2019b). In the case

of a mangrove insurance policy, the events that trigger

the policy are likely to be related to the occurrence of a

hurricane, as non-hurricane related risks to mangroves

(listed in Figure 4) are not random enough in nature to

be covered under an insurance policy.

The actual payout is generally a structure of staggered

payments, where the payout increases with the intensity

of the parameter and, in the case of indemnity, with the

level of assessed damages. For example, payouts in the

insurance policy for coral reefs and beaches in Quintana

Roo, Mexico were 40% of the maximum payout at wind

speeds greater than 100 knots, 80% at wind speeds

greater than 130 knots, and 100% only in the event of

wind speeds exceeding 160 knots (TNC, 2021). With an

indemnity policy, payouts will be based on assessed dam-

age at the site and with a combined policy, payouts will be

based on both the trigger event and assessed damages.

Policy price

The price of the insurance policy is based on the charac-

teristics of the policy (e.g., payout and trigger event) and

the potential hurricane damage, based on characteristics

of the site (e.g., mangrove species, elevation, geographic

location, i.e., in an area more prone to hurricanes). The

potential for hurricane damage at a given mangrove site

is referred to as the site’s exposure.

Fragility curves help identify the storm conditions under

which mangroves are destroyed and/or fail during storm

events by estimating the relationship between damage

to the mangroves and a characteristic of the hurricane,

such as wind speed or storm surge. Fragility curves can

also be used to identify the cost of restoration needed

for various storm intensities and to estimate the amount

of payouts that will be required. Menéndez et al. (2022)

presents initial estimates of the correlation between

damages to mangroves and wind speed caused by six

hurricanes in Florida. This preliminary fragility curve es-

timated related wind speed (knots) to mangrove damage,

measured as a percent, and was used, in combination

with assumptions about predicted wind speeds, to build

out the annual expected mangrove damage presented

in Figure 6 (Menéndez et al., 2022). Ultimately, fragility

curves require dozens of data points on mangrove dam-

age resulting from past hurricanes in several locations and

can take many years to develop.

Finally, the policy price must be informed by the financial

capacity of the buyer. The insurance purchaser will decide

at what hurricane intensities and estimated mangrove

damage levels they will need to cover with an insurance

policy. They may choose to cover less severe storms and

damage with their own emergency funds rather than

transfer the risk to an insurer.

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 15

Insurance claims

The final component needed to complete a mangrove in-

surance policy is the determination of the loss adjustment

procedures and the policy beneficiary. In the case of a

parametric policy, the loss adjustment process involves

identifying a credible third-party data source (e.g., NOAA

National Hurricane Center) that will be used to determine

the occurrence of the trigger event in the trigger polygon.

In the case of an indemnity policy, the loss adjustment

process involves determining which individuals or orga-

nizations will be responsible for assessing damage to the

mangroves on site, as well as the method and timeline

for doing so.

The policy beneficiary, referred to as the Named Insured

and usually the first person or entity named on a policy, is

responsible for insurance premium payments, submitting

claims, and receipt and management of policy benefits.

The policy beneficiary can designate third-party loss

payees to receive some or all of the insurance policy

payouts. In the case of the reef insurance in Quintana Roo,

Mexico, the Named Insured was an existing trust fund,

which then used revenue contributed by coastal property

owners, local governments, and others to purchase and

manage the insurance policy and payments (TNC, 2021).

As illustrated in Figure 10, the trust fund manages other

coral reef restoration activities, as well.

Figure 10: Structure of trust fund that manages reef insurance in Quintana Roo, Mexico.

Mexico’s Trust Fund Cash Flow

TRUST FUND

Government

contributions

Donors

Emergency fund

Minor and moderate

damages

Coastal

properties fees

Regular revenue

Reef

restoration

Private

investments

Insurance

Catastrophic

damages

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 16

Opportunities

for mangrove

insurance in

Mexico, Florida,

and The Bahamas

To assess the feasibility of a mangrove insurance policy in

Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas, we engaged a diverse

set of stakeholders across each of these three regions

over the course of the project. Stakeholders in all three

regions expressed interest and excitement about the pos-

sibility of a mangrove insurance policy. Most stakeholders

wanted to learn more about how a mangrove insurance

policy may be structured, the types of perils it may cover,

the restoration activities that might be implemented with

payouts, how much it might cost, and how prices would

be determined.

The stakeholder engagement activities focused on iden-

tifying potential mangroves to insure, the beneficiaries of

the mangroves’ ecosystem services, and potential buyers

of an insurance policy. The map in Figure 11 shows the

locations of nine potential pilot site locations identified

in the three study regions. In each region, we used the

following questions to guide our discussions and describe

the findings for each region below (Berg et al., 2020;

Secaira Fajardo et al., 2019):

1. How valuable are the flood protection benefits of

mangroves?

2. Are there stakeholders who value or benefit from the

flood protection of mangroves?

3. Are these stakeholders interested in managing risk to

mangroves and potentially buying an insurance policy?

4. Are these stakeholders legally entitled to purchase

insurance?

5. Do these stakeholders have the capacity to pay an

insurance premium?

6. Is there an existing institution or financial entity that

could convene beneficiaries to buy the insurance?

Figure 11: Potential mangrove insurance pilot site locations in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas

The Bahamas

The Marls of Central AbacoThe Marls of Central Abaco

Quintana RooQuintana Roo

Grand Bahama Port Area NorthGrand Bahama Port Area North

St. Lucie Inlet, Martin CountySt. Lucie Inlet, Martin County

Model Lands, Miami-Dade CountyModel Lands, Miami-Dade County

YucatanYucatan

Tabasco & CampecheTabasco & Campeche

Charlotte Harbor, Charlotte CountyCharlotte Harbor, Charlotte County

Picnic Island Park, City of TampaPicnic Island Park, City of Tampa

Florida

Mexico

Gulf of

Mexico

Caribbean

Sea

Atlantic

Ocean

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 17

Mexico

Figure 12: Present value (a) and present value per hectare (b) of mangrove flood protection benefits in the Yucatan Peninsula

over 30 years assuming a 4% discount rate. Source: Menéndez et al., 2022.

In Mexico, the national government owns most of the

mangroves and the Comisión Nacional de Áreas Natu-

rales Protegidas (CONANP, the National Commission

of Natural Protected Areas) manages the country’s

nationally protected areas. Interest in insurance poli-

cies to protect and restore coastal assets is strong in

Mexico, given the success of the Quintana Roo coral

reef insurance policy (TNC, 2021).

Mexico Mexico

Gulf of

Mexico

Gulf of

Mexico

Pacific

Ocean

Pacific

Ocean

N N

Present Value per Hectare

($ per hectare of mangroves)

>0 - 0.5

0.5 - 2.1

2.1 - 6.9

6.9 - 15.9

15.9 - 65.6

Present Value

($ million)

>0 - 23

23 - 97

97 - 286

286 - 683

683 - 1,077

No mangrove area

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 18

Tabasco and Campeche Yucatan Quintana Roo

Hectares of site

188,000 74,000 146,000

Key assets protected

Villahermosa City; medium

and small-sized coastal

fishing and recreational

communities

Medium and small-sized

coastal fishing and

recreational communities

Cancún; Puerto Morelos;

Mahahual; Xcalak; state

highways and trains

Key stakeholders

CONANP CONANP; Yucatan State

Government

CONANP; Quintana Roo

State Government

Possible financial

mechanisms

FMCN via its Natural

Protected Areas Fund

FMCN via its Natural

Protected Areas Fund

FMCN via its Natural

Protected Areas Fund;

Quintana Roo State Trust for

Coastal Management

Table 1: High-priority locations for a potential mangrove insurance policy in Mexico. CONANP refers to Comisión Nacional de

Áreas Naturales Protegidas and FMCN refers to Fondo Mexicano para la Conservación de la Naturaleza, A.C.

CONANP is currently assessing how its Natural Protected

Areas Fund could purchase an insurance policy to fund

the restoration of damages to these areas. CONANP

is particularly interested in a multi-peril insurance that

could simultaneously protect mangroves, dunes, and

reefs against hurricanes, droughts, and fires. In addition,

Fondo Mexicano para la Conservación de la Naturaleza,

A.C. (FMCN, the Mexican Fund for the Conservation of

Nature) has the ability to purchase an insurance policy,

receive the payouts, and disburse funding for restoration

work via its Natural Protected Areas Fund. According to

Mexico Article 85 of El Ley Sobre El Contrato de Seguro

(Article 85 of Mexico Insurance Law), any individual or

entity that has an economic interest in the “non-occur-

rence of a loss” may purchase an insurance contract.

We identified three primary locations of interest in the

broader Yucatan Peninsula: the states of Tabasco and

Campeche; Yucatan; and Quintana Roo (Figure 11 and

Table1). Figure 12 shows the distribution of the present

value and present value per hectare of flood protection

benefits across these three locations, assuming a

30-year life and 4% discount rate. Across the entire

Yucatan Peninsula, mangroves provide over $2 billion

in flood protection benefits, with benefits exceeding

$100 million in four areas: Cancun, Playa del Carmen,

Villahermosa and Coatzacoalcos (Figure 12a). Over 500

kilometers of coastline have a BCR exceeding one and

over 100 kilometers have a BCR exceeding ten, including

Tulum and Campeche (Figure 12b).

These three regions were proposed for the relatively high

level of flood protection benefits provided by mangroves,

the large number of communities dependent on coastal

fishing, recreation, or tourism activities, and the state

governments’ general interest in identifying innovative

ways to protect and restore coastal assets. The Yucatan

Peninsula is also highly vulnerable to hurricanes. Between

2000 and 2021, 30 hurricanes made landfall in the area,

including 12 that were Category 3 or above (NOAA, 2022).

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 19

Florida

Figure 13: Present value (a) and present value per hectare (b) of mangrove flood protection benefits in Florida over 30 years

assuming a 4% discount rate. Source: Menéndez et al., 2022.

In Florida, mangroves are managed by the landowner or

through collaborations or partnerships with government

agencies charged with management of natural resources.

As a result, the bulk of mangroves are either owned or

managed by federal, state, or municipal governments.

The state has a policy of self-insuring its assets,so the

state has little interest in purchasinga mangrove insurance

policy. However, Florida Statute § 627.405(2) allows

any entity (e.g., local governments or organizations) or

individual that can demonstrate “substantial economic

interest” in the asset to legally purchase an insurance policy

on state-owned mangroves.

Florida’s mangroves are highly vulnerable to hurricanes. Be-

tween 2000 and 2021, 15 hurricanes—more than 40% of all

hurricanes to hit the US—made landfall in Florida, including 9

that were Category 3 and above (NOAA, 2021; NOAA, 2022).

Florida Florida

Gulf of

Mexico

Gulf of

Mexico

Atlantic

Ocean

Atlantic

Ocean

N N

Present Value

($ million)

>0 - 23

23 - 97

97 - 286

286 - 683

683 - 1,077

Present Value per Hectare

($ per hectare of mangroves)

>0 - 0.5

0.5 - 2.1

2.1 - 6.9

6.9 - 15.9

15.9 - 65.6

No mangrove area

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 20

Stakeholders in Florida understand the benefits and value

of ecosystem services that mangroves provide coastal

communities. They also understand that these benefits

and services may be reduced in the future due to accumu-

lated damages caused by climate change, development,

and hurricanes. Though many stakeholders expressed

interest in the potential of insurance to manage this future

risk within their jurisdictions, their individual willingness

or capacity to purchase annual premiums is challenged

by various factors, including:

• uncertainty regarding the advantage of purchasing

an insurance policy for mangroves;

• lost opportunity cost associated with diverting

limited funding for natural resource management

and restoration work to insurance premiums; and

• reluctance to purchase an insurance policy for a

natural resource that has been historically under-

valued and/or required minimal capital investment

to maintain its flood risk reduction benefits.

Nevertheless, we identified four sites with potential to pilot

a mangrove insurance policy: Picnic Island Park in Tampa

Bay, Model Lands in Miami-Dade County, Charlotte Harbor

in Charlotte County, and St. Lucie Inlet in Martin County

(Figure 11 and Table 2). Across the four sites, the present

value of mangrove flood protection benefits ranges from

$18 million in St. Lucie Inlet to $1 billion in the Picnic Island

Park area (Figure 13a). The BCR was above 2 around Picnic

Island Park, Model Lands, and Martin County and above

one in areas around the Charlotte Harbor site (Figure13b).

At each of these sites, we identified opportunities for

topographic and hydrologic restoration of mangroves and

for improved management of the land to better enable

landward mangrove migration resulting from sea level rise

and storm surge. Many local governments in Florida also

have strategies linked to increasing resilience and adaptive

capacity, making them key partners in building out a pilot

insurance policy. For example, the City of Tampa has a

Resilient Tampa strategy and the Greater Miami region

has a Resilient305 strategy.

11 For more information, see the Resilient Tampa website: https://

www.tampa.gov/green-tampa/resilience; and the Resilient305

website: https://resilient305.com/.

Table 2: High-priority locations for potential mangrove insurance policy in Florida.

Picnic Island Park Model Lands Charlotte Harbor Martin County

Hectares of site

200 400 200 200

Key considerations

Borders MacDill

Air Force Base; Port

Tampa City is a

frontline community

with regards to sea

level rise

Key migration space

for mangroves

Extensive area of

mangroves with

multiple jurisdictions

charged with

conservation and

restoration

High protection

benefits; strong

interest in

partnering from local

stakeholders

Key stakeholders

City of Tampa;

Tampa Bay Estuary

Program; MacDill Air

Force Base

Miami-Dade County;

Florida Power and

Light; South Florida

Water Management

District; US

Department of the

interior

City of Punta

Gorda; Charlotte

County; State of

Florida; Coastal and

Heartland National

Estuary Partnership

City of Stuart; Martin

County; State of

Florida; Florida Inland

Navigation District; US

Fish and Wildlife

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 21

The Bahamas

Figure 14: Present value (a) and present value per hectare (b) of mangrove flood protection benefits in The Bahamas over 30

years assuming a 4% discount rate. Source: Menéndez et al., 2022.

The mangroves in The Bahamas are especially vulnerable

to damage from hurricanes (Figure 5). Between 2000

and 2021, 20 hurricanes made landfall in The Bahamas,

including 12 that were Category 3 and above—and 5 that

were Category 5 (NOAA, 2022). In 2019, Category 5

Hurricane Dorian severely damaged mangroves and other

coastal ecosystems.

Measuring the protective benefits of mangroves in The

Bahamas is challenging due to the large number of small

islands and dispersed populations. In our analysis, with

the exception of Andros and Inagua, the protective ben-

efits of mangroves in The Bahamas were measured on an

island-by-island basis rather than in the five-kilometer

study units used in Mexico and Florida (Figure14). In

addition, the majority of the population in The Bahamas

is concentrated on two islands—nearly 70% on New

Providence and 15% on Grand Bahama. In other areas,

such as West Andros, mangroves offer lower total flood

protection benefits due to small local populations and

limited infrastructure, however, they provide signif-

icant tourism and fishery benefits (Figure14; Fedler,

2018). Despite these limitations, our results show that

mangroves provide over $2 billion in flood protection

benefits in The Bahamas with a country-level BCR above

one (Figure 14a and 14b).

The Bahamas The Bahamas

Atlantic

Ocean

Atlantic

Ocean

N N

Present Value per Hectare

($ per hectare of mangroves)

>0 - 0.5

0.5 - 2.1

2.1 - 6.9

6.9 - 15.9

15.9 - 65.6

Present Value

($ million)

>0 - 23

23 - 97

97 - 286

286 - 683

683 - 1,077

No mangrove

area

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 22

The northern port area of Grand Bahama and The Marls of

Central Abaco, which make up nearly 15% of The Bahamas’

Gross Domestic Product, emerged as the two primary focal

areas for a potential mangrove insurance policy (Zegarra

etal., 2020). In Grand Bahama, mangroves provide over

$900 million in flood protection benefits. In Abaco,

mangroves provide over $26 million in flood protection

benefits (Figure 14a). Both islands are home to large areas

of mangroves, including mangroves that are adjacent to key

public infrastructure, such as airports (Table3). Both also

intersect with potential blue carbon sites, and stakeholders

expressed interest in understanding whether and how

mangrove insurance and blue carbon payments might be

pursued jointly. Grand Bahama and Abaco Islands are two

of the islands in The Bahamas that are most frequently

impacted by hurricanes (Winkler, 2020). In 2019, Hurri-

cane Dorian caused significant damage to mangroves on

both islands, and an estimated $1 million over the next

five years is still needed to complete restoration of the

damaged areas.

12 Estimate based on conversations with several local stakeholder

groups.

Many local businesses and organizations in The Bahamas

lack the capacity to fund a mangrove insurance premium.

Moreover, many of the mangroves in The Bahamas are

on Crown land, meaning they are owned by the federal

government, which tends to self-insure like the State of

Florida. However, the Bahamas Protected Areas Fund—a

national conservation trust fund established in 2014 with

a mandate to provide sustainable financing for protected

areas management and biodiversity conservation, among

other things—could likely fund an insurance premium.

With modest changes to its structure and governance,

the trust fund could also serve as the hub for all activities

related to mangrove insurance, similar to the trust fund

in Quintana Roo, Mexico. While Bahamian insurance

law does not explicitly address insurable interest related

to property policies, the common principle requiring an

economic interest will likely apply since Bahamian law

tends to follow English common law.

13 See https://www.inhouselawyer.co.uk/feature/commercial-litiga-

tion-focus-the-bahamas/.

Table 3: High-priority locations for potential mangrove insurance policy in The Bahamas.

Grand Bahama Port Area North The Marls of Central Abaco

Hectares of site

8,000 30,000

Key assets protected

International airport; industrial zone;

residential development

International airport; medium and small-

sized coastal fishing and recreational

communities

Key stakeholders

Forestry unit of the Ministry of the

Environment and Natural Resources; Grand

Bahama Port Authority; Grand Bahama

Development Company; Businesses in

industrial zone; NGOs implementing

mangrove restoration (e.g., Bonefish and

Tarpon Trust, Water Keepers Bahamas, Blue

Action Lab)

Forestry unit of the Ministry of the

Environment and Natural Resources;

Tourism and other commercial property

owners; NGOs implementing mangrove

restoration (e.g., Friends of the

Environment, Bahamas National Trust)

Possible financial

mechanisms

Bahamas Protected Area Fund Bahamas Protected Area Fund

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 23

Conclusions:

Outlook and

opportunities

In much of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean region,

mangroves provide high-value flood protection benefits.

Across our entire study region in Mexico, Florida, and The

Bahamas, mangroves provide over $17 billion in flood pro-

tection benefits over 30 years (Menéndez et al., 2022).

Based on our BCR assessments, a mangrove insurance

policy to fund restoration following hurricane damage

would be cost-effective in many areas across the region.

We identified nearly 250 5-kilometer coastal study units,

spanning more than 80,000 hectares of mangroves and

1,200 kilometers of coastline in these areas, where the

BCR was higher than one.

In all three areas, our stakeholder engagement revealed

strong interest in exploring how a mangrove insurance

policy might be designed and managed. Stakeholder

consultations identified nine locations across Mexico,

Florida, and The Bahamas with significant potential to

advance a mangrove insurance pilot policy. Key lessons

and learnings from these initial conversations include:

• The geographic area of interest for insurance coverage

will be location specific and determined by stakehold-

ers. In Mexico, interest is largely around an insurance

policy that would cover an entire state of Yucutan, while

in Florida and The Bahamas interest is focused on small-

er and more discrete areas of mangroves.

• In each region, a mangrove insurance policy could

be purchased by an entity that can demonstrate an

insurable interest, i.e., the entity receives an eco-

nomic benefit from the insured asset even if it does

not own the mangroves. In Mexico and The Bahamas,

mangroves are predominately owned by the federal

government while in Florida they are owned by the

state. However, as long as another local government

or organization could demonstrate an insurable inter-

est in the mangroves, they could legally be eligible to

purchase a mangrove insurance policy.

• In nearly all of the conversations with stakeholders,

the primary concerns were how much an insurance

policy would cost, who or which entity would pay for

it, and/or how funds could be secured to pay for it.

Identifying ways to fund the purchase of the insurance

premium is critical.

With the work that we have done to date, we are op-

timistic about the potential for establishing mangrove

insurance policies to fund restoration of mangroves dam-

aged by hurricanes. While this phase of work focused on

the feasibility of a mangrove insurance policy in specific

locations, the next phase of work will focus on how to

design the insurance scheme and manage the payouts

to ensure the appropriate restoration work takes place

(Figure 15). As we move into the design phase of work,

key science needs include:

• In order to determine the best type of policy (para-

metric vs. indemnity vs. combined), we need to better

understand the mangrove restoration needs at a

specific site, including what post-storm restoration

work is cost-effective in terms of speeding up the

natural recovery process of damaged mangroves.

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 24

For example, understanding when mangrove dieback

will occur post-storm in the absence of human inter-

vention and which restoration techniques would be

needed to avoid the dieback.

• In order to more accurately determine the policy price,

we need to build out data points in the fragility curve

that links the intensity of a hurricane to mangrove

damage. Because on-the-ground observational dam-

age data is limited, this work will likely need to rely on

regional analyses based on satellite images.

By filling in these science gaps and holding additional

stakeholder engagements in each high-priority location,

we will aim to answer the following questions during the

design phase of work:

• What are the post-storm restoration actions that

would need to be insured? How do these actions

influence the type of insurance scheme created?

• Which suite of financial tools would be needed to

fund a post storm response? How much of the funding

needs should be self-insured (e.g., through an emer-

gency fund) and how much should be transferred via

an insurance policy?

Figure 15: Process to assess, design and buy an insurance policy. Adapted from Secaira Fajardo et al., (2019).

• What institutional arrangements are needed to ensure

that the insurance payouts are used appropriately?

Does additional on-the-ground restoration capac-

ity need to be developed (e.g., labor force, skillset,

permits) in order to effectively use the insurance

payouts?

• How much would a mangrove insurance policy cost?

• What is the best way to fund the mangrove insurance

premium?

• What opportunities are there to link a mangrove insur-

ance policy with resilience and/or blue carbon credits?

In much of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, erosion

and hurricanes are the primary threats to mangrove loss

(Goldberg et al., 2020). Identifying innovative funding

to finance the restoration and protection of mangroves

going forward will be critical to ensuring their resilience

and the resilience of the communities that they protect.

Insurance is an important avenue for this funding. As we

move forward with this work, TNC’s goal is to launch a

pilot mangrove insurance policy and demonstrate that,

when used appropriately, these types of risk transfer tools

can be a cost-effective means of protecting our coastlines

and coastal communities.

Step 1 Step 3 Step 5Step 2 Step 4 Step 6

Determine if

there is a need

for insurance

policy

Design the

insurance

policy

Purchase

the policy

Identify

potential buyers

Establish entity and

process for policy

coordination and

restoration action

Build the capacity

for post-hurricane

restoration

Feasibility Design Implementation

Relevance and Feasibility of Mangrove Insurance in Mexico, Florida, and The Bahamas 25White mangroves at Levera, Grenada. © Marjo Aho.

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